Product Description
Jeffreys' Theory of Probability, published in 1939, was the first attempt to develop a theory of scientific inference based on Bayesian statistics. His ideas were well ahead of their time and it is only in the past ten years that Bayes' factors have become a leading area of research and a standard subject for advanced students. This seminal book is the starting point. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (3)

Not for uninitiated
If you are looking for a textbook you can use to learn statistical methods, this is not the one. The book is most useful for scientists experienced in applying the methods of statistics, who want to sharpen their mathematical apparatus to put their research on a firm foundation. The level of mathematical knowledge required to read the book is not very high but quite demanding as in many cases lots of intermediary calculations are left to the reader, so to properly read the book you have to have a pen and paper to follow the derivation of formulae.

No,Keynes never changed his mind about partial prob. orders
Jeffreys(J)does an excellent job in laying down a foundation for statistical inference based on a logical theory of probability.However,(J)appears not to have carefully read Keynes's A Treatise on Probability(1921),especially chapters 8,29,30,31 and 32.J appears not to have understood the generality of Keynes's approach.In the physical and life sciences,where one is dealing with evidence which is homogeneous and where every particle,electron,cell,molecule,gene or chromesome,etc.,is identical or practically identical to every other particle,electron,etc.,the only relevant evidence is statistical or frequency evidence.In such cases,Keynes's logical approach will give the same answer as Jeffreys would give.Keynes gave two other useful suggestions that were overlooked by J.The first was that the data pass a Lexis Q test for stability(satisfy the law of large numbers strictly).The second was Keynes's recommendation about using the Chebyshev Inequality as a lower bound on statistical estimates if the required assumptions necessary to assume anormal probability distribution were not met.J never understood that the very general axiomatic foundation that Keynes laid out in Chapter 12 of the TP applied to both precise and imprecise(partially ordered )probabilities.Keynes never claimed that the probabilities of scientific endeavor were partially ordered.Keynes did recognize,however, that the probabilities of the social sciences,liberal arts,economics,business,education and every day practical decision making were,in general,partially ordered.Finally ,J's claim ,in his introduction ,that Keynes withdrew his claim that most probabilities are inexact and indefinite,requiring two real numbers to specify the probability relation instead of one,in a 1931 New Statesman and Nation article reviewing Ramsey's collected essays,does not have a shred of evidence to support it.This type of offhand commentmakes no sense as it would require Keynes to give up his general logical theory of probability in order to accept Ramsey's very special and narrow theory of probability.

it is a great theory and it is a great book.
I think bayesian theory will be used inevery fields of our life in the future. ... Read more

Product Description
These six volumes comprise the collected papers of Sir Harold Jeffreys from 1915 up to the present day. Edited by him, they have been carefully annotated in the light of later works. Sir Harold Jeffreys is probably best known for his work in geophysics - an interest that was aroused in his undergraduate days by Sir George Darwin's popular book on the tides - but his interests embrace a far wider field of study. This is shown particularly in the last volume, which includes, among other topics, his papers on probability and scientific method.Vol I: Theoretical and Observational SeismologyVol II: Observational SeismologyVol III: GravityVol IV: Dissipation of Energy and Thermal HistoryVol V: Astronomy and GeophysicsVol VI: Miscellaneous ... Read more